U.S. Strike on Iran Would Bring Risks 

U.S. Strike on Iran Would Bring Risks 

A U.S. military strike on Iran would carry significant and potentially catastrophic risks, with far-reaching consequences for the Middle East and global stability. Here’s a breakdown of the primary risks:

1. Immediate Iranian Retaliation and Escalation:

Direct Attacks: Iran has repeatedly vowed “significant and irreversible repercussions” if attacked. It possesses a substantial arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones, capable of reaching U.S. military bases, embassies, and assets throughout the region (especially in Iraq), and potentially even targets further afield.
Proxy Warfare: Iran has cultivated a network of well-armed and experienced proxy groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, various Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. These groups could be unleashed to launch coordinated attacks against U.S. and allied interests, including shipping lanes, oil infrastructure, and personnel.
Strait of Hormuz Closure: A critical chokepoint for global oil trade, the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted or even closed by Iran, severely impacting global energy supplies and causing oil prices to skyrocket. Even limited disruptions or vessel rerouting would have significant economic repercussions.

Cyberattacks: Iran has demonstrated capable cyber capabilities and could launch disruptive cyberattacks against U.S. and allied infrastructure, both military and civilian.
Internal Instability in Iran: While some may hope for regime change, a military strike could actually rally support around the Iranian government, particularly among segments of the population that view such an attack as an assault on national sovereignty. It could also lead to internal unrest and further human rights abuses.
2. Regional Destabilization and Broader War:

Spillover into Iraq: Iraq, already a fragile state with significant Iranian influence and U.S. military presence, would almost certainly become a major battleground. Pro-Iran militias could intensify attacks on U.S. forces, and the Iraqi government would face immense pressure to expel American troops.
Increased Sectarianism: A U.S.-Iran conflict could exacerbate sectarian tensions throughout the region, further destabilizing countries with mixed populations and potentially leading to new waves of extremism.
Humanitarian Crisis: Any large-scale conflict would undoubtedly lead to a severe humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement, casualties, and disruption of essential services.
Impact on Allies: Regional U.S. allies, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would face increased threats from Iranian retaliation and could be drawn into the conflict. European allies, already wary of U.S. unilateralism, would likely view military action as a dangerous escalation.
Nuclear Proliferation: Far from eliminating Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a strike could incentivize Iran to pursue nuclear weapons more aggressively as a deterrent against future attacks. It could also encourage other states in the region to develop their own nuclear programs, leading to a dangerous proliferation cascade.
3. Economic Consequences:

Global Oil Price Spikes: As mentioned, disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz or damage to Iranian oil infrastructure would send global oil prices soaring, potentially leading to a global recession. Brent crude could easily surpass $100 or even $120 per barrel.