Trump, Iran and the Specter of Iraq

The relationship between Donald Trump’s approach to Iran and the ongoing situation in Iraq is complex and intertwined, often viewed through the lens of a “maximum pressure” campaign and the specter of past conflicts.

Trump’s Policy Towards Iran:

During his first term, Donald Trump significantly shifted U.S. policy toward Iran from the Obama administration’s engagement-oriented approach. Key aspects included:

Withdrawal from JCPOA: In 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal, calling it “terrible.”
Maximum Pressure Campaign: This withdrawal was followed by a broad “maximum pressure” campaign, imposing over 1,500 sanctions on Iran’s financial, oil, and shipping sectors. The goal was to severely cripple Iran’s economy and force it to negotiate a more comprehensive deal that would address not only its nuclear program but also its ballistic missile development and regional activities.
Escalation of Tensions: Tensions escalated significantly in 2019 and 2020, with attacks on oil tankers, the downing of a U.S. drone, and suspected Iranian strikes on Saudi oil facilities. A major turning point was the U.S. assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad in January 2020, which prompted Iranian missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and heightened fears of a wider war.
Current Stance: As of June 2025, Trump continues to express a tough stance on Iran, insisting on “total dismantlement” of its nuclear program and even hinting at direct military involvement in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. He has publicly stated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and that his “patience is wearing thin.”

Iran’s Influence in Iraq and the Specter of Iraq:

Iraq finds itself in a precarious position, caught between U.S. and Iranian interests.

Iranian Influence: Iran has significant historical, cultural, economic, and security ties with Iraq, sharing a long border. It exerts influence through various Iran-aligned political parties and powerful Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) factions, some of which have repeatedly targeted U.S. interests in Iraq. Tehran views Iraq as a vital economic lifeline and a base for projecting military power.

U.S. Presence and Withdrawal Pressures: The U.S. maintains approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq to support the fight against ISIS and counter Iranian influence. However, pro-Iran groups in Iraq have intensified calls for the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops, especially following recent Israeli strikes on Iran, viewing the U.S. presence as an enabler of Israeli aggression.

Iraq’s Dilemma: The Iraqi government is in a difficult bind, trying to maintain its security partnership with the U.S. while facing intense domestic pressure from Iran-aligned factions. Any U.S. withdrawal or perceived weakening of Iraqi sovereignty due to U.S. actions (like Israeli overflights through Iraqi airspace) risks empowering these groups and further solidifying Iranian influence.
Risk of Destabilization: A complete U.S. withdrawal could further empower Shia loyalists, alienate the Sunni community, and strengthen Iran’s regional agenda, potentially leading to increased internal instability in Iraq and a resurgence of ISIS. The situation in Iraq directly impacts regional stability, and an escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions could easily spill over into Iraqi territory.

The “Specter of Iraq”:

The phrase “Specter of Iraq” likely refers to the lessons and consequences of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. For many, it evokes:

Unintended Consequences: The unforeseen and long-term destabilizing effects of military intervention, including the rise of new extremist groups and the empowerment of regional rivals.
Protracted Conflict: The difficulty of disengaging from a military conflict once engaged, and the significant human and financial costs.
Questionable Intelligence/Pretexts for War: The controversial nature of the intelligence that preceded the 2003 invasion and the subsequent debate over its justification.
In the context of Trump’s Iran policy, the “specter of Iraq” serves as a cautionary tale. Critics and even some within Trump’s administration have warned that aggressive actions against Iran, especially those leading to direct military confrontation, could lead to a similar quagmire, with unpredictable and devastating consequences for the U.S. and the wider Middle East. There is concern that Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender” from Iran could make diplomatic solutions difficult and increase the risk of a “war of choice” that would carry an “immeasurable price” for Iran, the region, and the U.S.